Land Use and Land Cover

The primary driver behind climate change is excessive greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, which enhance the greenhouse effect to trap excess energy and warm the planet¹. A not insignificant aspect of climate change is how much the Earth’s surface has changed since the 1800s, as we depend on the natural environment to provide food, water, and other critical resources to a rapidly growing population².

Humans have impacted over 70% of the planet’s surface, with over 35% dedicated solely to agricultural practices³. The land surface is a natural source and sink for various greenhouse gases. Plants—especially trees—take up and store CO2 in their biomass and soils, but deforestation negates these effects^1,4. Removing forests decreases the amount of carbon held by the land and reduces ecological biodiversity, function, and resiliency—something which current and future generations depend on to provide ecosystem services^2,5,6.

Crop and pasture management practices have also increased methane and nitrous oxide emissions, two other significant greenhouse gases with greater global warming potentials, by 30%-52%^1,7. Agriculture is the second largest contributor to climate change behind fossil fuel emissions. Agriculture contributes to climate change through direct emissions from fertilizers and livestock but also indirectly with degrading soils and vegetation². More sustainable land-use practices could significantly mitigate climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, protecting environmental biodiversity, and helping ensure food security for current and future generations^8,9,10,11. These actions can be incentivized through carbon credit programs.

These global patterns are mirrored in Texas, where natural grasslands and forests have been converted to grazing and farming fields at a rapid rate⁶. This includes the expansive development of natural gas fracking and oil drilling operations^12,13. Urban expansion of major cities like Austin and Houston also replaces natural surfaces with built materials, which absorb more incoming solar radiation than other natural surfaces, contributing to warming conditions and negatively impacting human health^14,15,16.

Climate projections indicate the continued increase in average temperatures statewide through the end of the century, shifting Texas to a more arid climate^5,17. These warmer conditions will likely impact surface water availably and cause crop yields to decline by up to 70 percent depending on the model scenario^18,19,20. Wildfires are expected to become more common and, combined with drier conditions, will likely extend the range of deserts in Texas and shift the landscape and ecosystems of the state²¹.

Many ecosystems in Texas are already adapted to living in an arid environment and cannot tolerate a worsening in water scarcity²². Depending on the actions taken to protect the land and mitigate climate change, the Chihuahuan Desert’s geographic range will likely increase and extend into higher elevations, impacting biodiversity and carbon sequestration²³. Much wildlife will likely migrate with the desert’s expansion, and some native plants will likely persist and help delay desertification by retaining soil moisture and nutrients. However, wildfires, livestock grazing, and urban growth accelerate the loss of grasslands to deserts. Many forests will likely transition into grasslands, while existing grasslands will likely become deserts^5,19. Proper adaptation and mitigation policy measures could be used to protect vital ecosystems, infrastructure, and resources under changing climate conditions.

There are many complex and interconnected ways land use and land cover change interact with the climate and human well-being. The above should merely be considered a general overview; learn more by exploring the maps and resources below.

Edwards Aquifer Land Use / Land Cover (Texas Commission on Environmental Quality)

Global Forest Watch: A community-focused data tool for monitoring and managing the world’s forests and implementing more sustainable land-use strategies.

National Land Cover Database (United States Geological Survey)

New Climate Maps Show a Transformed United States (ProPublica)

Support the ecosystems that support us all (Texas Coastal Xchange)