Temperature

Since the late 1800s, Earth’s climate has changed more rapidly than any other period in humanity’s history^1,2. Even more concerning is that this rate is continuing to accelerate: the average global temperature increased more in the previous three decades than in the last century^3,4. Texas is already feeling the effects of climate change and exceeded 0.8 °C (1.5 °F) of warming compared to preindustrial levels in 2016^5,6. This trend will likely continue to accelerate in the coming 15 years.

Texas State Climatologist John Neilson-Gammon for Texas 2036 analyzed past climate trends to gauge extreme weather risks to Texas in the immediate future. Historical records confirm that the state is warming at rates consistent with global trends, with models projecting conditions in 2036 being around 1.7 °C (3 °F) warmer than the 1950s average, which is 1 °C (1.8 °F) warmer than the 1990s⁷. Long-term projections show a 2 °C to 2.8 °C (3.6 °F to 5.1 °F) increase by 2050 and a 2.4 °C to 4.8 °C (4.4 °F to 8.4 °F) rise by the end of the century, depending on the specific greenhouse gas emissions scenario used¹. Projections with greater greenhouse gas emissions correspond directly to more rapid and greater temperatures^4,5. Even the lower end of these emissions scenarios is undesirable, as the numbers only represent average temperatures and have other compounding drawbacks⁸.

As overall conditions in Texas get hotter, the number of extreme heat days with surface temperatures at—or above—38 °C (100 °F) will likely continue to go up⁵. Extreme heat days will likely double by 2036 compared to the early 2000s, with an extra 30 to 60 days per year by 2100^6,7. These effects will likely be magnified in urban areas thanks to enhanced heating from impervious surfaces like concrete^9,10.

The summer drought of 2011 is currently the hottest and driest summer on record¹¹, but more periods of prolonged and intense heat will probably make similar events much more common^6,7. It is highly likely that a drought worse than in 2011 will happen by 2036⁷. The number of extreme winter cold days is projected to continue declining as winters in Texas are overall becoming warmer and shorter^1,7. Events like Winter Storm Uri in 2021 were devastating for over 170 million Texans and were a direct consequence of weakened polar jet streams from a warmer Arctic¹². These winter events are typically damaging due to their rarity and subsequently underprepared infrastructure^11,13. Similar cold snaps will probably become more common in the southern United States, but the air they bring from northern latitudes will likely be warmer as the Arctic is heating at roughly three times the global average rate^1,4,7,14.

Texas has noticeably warmed in recent years and is expected to continue to do so. These changes will interact with other effects of climate change and influence drought, water, ecosystems, and human health throughout the state. The graphics and resources below explore past and future temperature changes in Texas.